Democrats on verge of taking back US Senate: How you can make it happen

The latest polls and rankings show Democrats have a real chance at winning the White House, adding 15 seats to their US House majority, and taking back the US Senate in November.

You can donate to the Democrats in the top US Senate races here, and the top US House races here.

Democrats need 3 to 4 seats to take back the Senate

For today, let’s focus on the US Senate. The Senate currently has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats therefore need to pick up three or four seats in November, depending on which party wins the presidency, since the vice president gets to break a tie in the Senate.

As things currently stand, Democrats might just do it because a number of key races are either tied, leaning towards the Democratic candidate, or leaning towards the Republican candidate (which is still good for Democrats).

Four Senate seats Democrats have a good chance of winning

These are our four best chances (donate to these Senate candidates here):

  • Jaime Harrison (D) vs. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina – toss up.
  • Sara Gideon (D) vs. Susan Collins in Maine – toss up.
  • Mark Kelly (D) vs. Martha McSally in Arizona – leans Democrat.
  • John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Cory Gardner in Colorado – leans Democrat, per Cook’s Political Report.

Five more Senate seats Democrats also have a good chance of winning

In these five, we have a really good shot (donate to these Senate candidates here):

Four more Senate seats in play if Democrats have a big night

Four other Senate races to watch if Democrats have a big night (donate to these Senate candidates here):

  • Mary Jennings (M.J.) Hegar(D) vs. John Cornyn in Texas.
  • Mike Espy (D) vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi.
  • Amy McGrath (D) vs. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.
  • Al Gross (I – The Democratic party is supporting Gross) vs. Dan Sullivan in Alaska.

Biden is ahead in the national and battleground state polls

As you know, Biden is doing well in national polls — and in particular with constituencies that were for Trump in 2016, but not this time (i.e., suburbanites, seniors, white women), but Biden is also doing well in key state polls. Here’s the average spread (average of latest polls) between Trump and Biden in the battleground states, per RealClearPolitics:

Wisconsin: Biden ahead by 6% points.
Michigan: Biden ahead by 7% points.
Florida: Biden ahead by 3.7% points.
Pennsylvania: ahead Biden by 7.1% points.
North Carolina: ahead Biden by 1.4% points.
Arizona: Biden ahead by 2.7% points.

It’s not a done deal till election day, but Biden is doing extremely well — much better than Hillary was doing at this point in 2016. While Hillary’s lead over Trump kept rising and shrinking, and at times even disappearing, Biden has maintained a consistent lead over Trump for three years now.

As for the Senate, for the longest time, we didn’t think we had a chance to win it back this year. But Trump has proven to be such a weight on Republican candidates, that Democrats now have a real chance.

Chip in to help Democrats take back the Senate

I’ve set up a few ActBlue pages where you can donate to a variety of the US Senate candidates above. Here’s Gideon, Harrison, Kelly, Hickenlooper and McGrath; and here’s those five plus Ossoff, Greenfield, Cunningham, Bullock, Gross, Hegar, Bollier and Espy.

CyberDisobedience on Substack | @aravosis | Facebook | Instagram | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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